After eleven years and $656,983 of withdrawals, the median investment in the S&P 500 still had a remaining value of $826,100. However, that average masks a lot of variability:
The “best case” scenario was an investment made on January 1st, 2003 with an ending value of $1,140,569.
The “worst case” scenario was an investment made on January 1st, 2000 with an ending value of $213,408.
That unlucky investor was subject to not one but two major bear markets. Forced to take withdrawals in the down years of 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2008. The pool of capital remaining was only $213,408 at the end of 2009.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio had similar ending values as the S&P 500 but with less variability between best and worst.
The Swan DRS posted the best results of the three. The median ending value after a decade, taking out the same $656,983 of withdrawals, was $1,346,794. There was little dispersion between the best decade and the worst decade with values of $1,408,721 and $1,010,984, respectively.
Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the S&P 500 Index are unmanaged indices and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. DRS results are from the Select Composite, net of fees, as of 12/31/2017.