Swan Research & White Papers

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Today, the equity markets are displaying many of the same worrying traits that Shiller identified in 2000.

 

It’s not surprising that risk management is becoming a primary concern for investors.

 

In this white paper, we revisit the 12 factors Schiller identified in the first edition of his book, Irrational Exuberance, to examine which factors are still relevant to today’s markets and discuss some new factors not in play 22 years ago that investors need to consider.

The universe of options-based strategies is expanding rapidly as investors explore ways to better manage risks and pursue their investment needs and objectives in a low-yield world. However, options utilization can be overwhelming with all there is to know about evaluating them, so in this paper we:
  1. Discuss and critique Morningstar’s laggard approach to classifying option-based strategies, to help due diligence and investment selection processes.
  2. Propose our three-tiered system of hedging, income, and alpha
  3. Outline the objectives, pros, cons, and risks of each of those three broad strategies
  4. Discuss of the Defined Risk Strategy within the framework we established
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When an options strategy fails, many write the entire category off as risky and dangerous investments. This is unfortunate because options strategies may help investors meet various investing objectives. It is not the options themselves that are risky. It is how they are used that matters.

There are lessons to be learned from the mistakes of others, and rather than discard these experiences entirely, that we delve into that have plagued some options strategies in the past:

  1. Excessive Leverage
  2. Lack of Liquidity
  3. Inadequate Risk Controls

Marc Odo,  CFA®, FRM, CAIA, CIPM, CFP®, Client Portfolio Manager, examines each of these and how they may contribute to the failing of an options-based strategy and recommends due diligence considerations.

Many investors do not understand the math that drives successful long-term results that can help them make better investment decisions and avoid costly ones.

We seek to help investors make these math principles behind investing work FOR investors:

1. The importance and power of compounding
2. The value of avoiding large losses
3. The importance of variance drain
4. The importance of a non-normal distribution of returns

 

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